We have updated our five-year UK market forecasts to take account of the latest available economic, demographic and administrative information. There is mixed performance across these factors since our last forecast in April, with the position improving in some aspects, and weakening in others.

Overall, our latest forecasts for 2020 are slightly more optimistic than those produced in April, with cash legacy income expected to shrink by between 4% and 23% in 2020. The average value of residual bequests is likely to drop by between 3% and 7% this year due to the impact of the pandemic on house and share prices.

Importantly, over the five-year forecast period we continue to expect total legacy incomes to grow, reaching £3.6bn to £3.8bn by 2024.

Jon Franklin, economist at Legacy Foresight, says: “Our scenarios now suggest that legacy cash income could fall by between 4% and 23% in 2020, reflecting the economic environment as well as the delays in the sale of property assets from estates caused by a slow-moving housing market. However, as administrative delays unwind and income starts to flow from the anticipated increase in bequests, it’s likely that income could rise quite rapidly during 2021 and 2022.”

Many of our regular clients tell us how vital our income forecasts are at the moment. Given how fundamental legacy income is for many charities, it’s critical to project – and plan for – the impact of COVID-19, both now and over the next three years. If we can help with your forecasts, please get in touch with Jon Franklin or Tim Yates.